In this series of articles, Professor Viard discusses the role of economics in everyday life in China and the world. Recently, I shipped a Hewlett Packard (HP) printer that I had purchased in Beijing to use in my office in Hong Kong. It arrived in good condition and I replaced the ink cartridges with new […]
Bruno Roche on the Economics of Mutuality
Bruno Roche, chief economist and Catalyst managing director for global food producer Mars, explains how the “Economics of Mutuality” can benefit businesses all over the world For more than five decades, Mars Incorporated—a multinational family-owned company, makers of iconic brands like M&Ms, Mars, Snickers, Dove, Uncle Ben’s, Pedigree, Royal Canin, Wrigley’s and more—has invested […]
Aiming for the Top: Can China Escape the Middle Income Trap?
First coined by two World Bank experts in 2007, the middle-income trap phenomenon—the existence of which is disputed by some economists—describes how growth in developing countries tends to stagnate when gross national income (GNI) per capita rises above a certain level, as higher wages push up production costs. Countries can become “stuck in the middle” as they struggle to compete with low-income newcomers where labor costs are still low, and advanced high-income economies with strong innovation. Since 1960, only 15 countries have escaped the“middle-income trap.” Can China beat the odds?
Trading Places: Is China Entering a Current Account Deficit?
China’s huge current account surplus was once the symbol of its status as the “factory of the world.” But in recent years, that surplus has been shrinking. Last year, it sank to 1.3% of GDP. The half-year deficit announced in August was the first in more than 20 years. Some economists predict China could soon be running a current account deficit. If that happens, it will be a watershed moment with implications for all manner of issues, from the policies Beijing is able to pursue to the status of the RMB as a global currency and maybe even the way the US finances its debt.
Daniel Kahneman Interview: Less-Than-Rational Actors
Before Daniel Kahneman, few if any psychologists influenced the field of economics. But the Nobel laureate reversed the assumption underpinning most economic theories: people always make rational choices. “People are rational, except they are myopic,” says Kahneman. As a result of his work, which pioneered the ideas of behavioral economics, individuals learned how to modify their less-than-perfect decisions and organizations learned to take human limitations into consideration in decision-making. In this interview, Kahneman talks about the history of his research, how he, who began as a psychologist, ended up influencing economics, and why his work generated so much impact.
CKGSB Business Sentiment Index 2017 Q1: Still Under Pressure
Although official data for first-quarter GDP and industrial growth exceeded expectations, the industrial economy has not yet bottomed out, according to the latest CKGSB survey. The survey, led by CKGSB Professor Gan Jie, shows that overcapacity remains at a historical high, both in terms of its prevalence and severity in Q1 2017. As in 2016 Q4, rising costs have been the driving force behind rising prices. Among firms with product costs inflation above 5%, cost rises were the most prominent. Meanwhile, the advantage of state-owned firms over private firms has increased in recent quarters.
How Hard Is It to Cut Chinese Government Debt?
Debt is a ticking-time bomb for the Chinese economy. In the past three years central government stopped local governments from financing through investment vehicles and set a cap for the issuance of bonds. But new forms of debt continue to be formed. Local officials appear not to care about borrowing more, as long as the money can be used in projects that may translate to political achievements. And with those achievements, officials will be promoted to a higher level–as will the debt burden. A more worrisome thought will be: can those additional government debts and investments support China’s long-term growth?
Xu Chenggang on Chinese Economic Reform: Government Stimulus Cannot Sustain Long-Term Growth
China’s economic growth over the past few decades has impressed the world. But the world’s second largest economy now faces a difficult transformation: from relying on exports and investments to developing domestic demand. That’s not easy. Government-led stimulus is only a temporary solution and only looked reasonable in the first few years after the recent global financial crisis. In fact, the main problem facing the Chinese economy has been the weak demand in domestic market which manifested clearly in 2006, and became more obvious when growth slowed down.
Bargaining on China and Brexit
On the morning of June 24, 2016, China woke up to witness an unexpected drama unfolding half a world away. The previous day, millions of UK citizens had voted on whether the UK should remain in the European Union, and all opinion polls, betting and market expectations pointed firmly towards ‘Remain.’ But as the early results came in, the startling prospect of Brexit became a reality. Some people think “Brexit has indeed diminished Beijing’s hopes of treating the UK as a strong advocate for China in the EU”, and there are another voices like “The Chinese… have other ways to penetrate the EU market, for example [through] Greece,” and in a sense they are both right. How will China and the UK’s “Golden Relationship” play out in the Post-Brexit era?
Arthur Kroeber: Making Sense of China’s Economy
China has achieved almost miraculous advancement in a mere 30 years, but at the same time is beset with a host of structural problems and contradictions that it must grapple with, especially as economic growth begins to slow. In this interview, Kroeber, the author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, a comprehensive introduction to China’s rise from an economic backwater in the early 1980s to the world’s second-largest economy, offers his analysis to CKGSB Knowledge on how China got here, where it might be headed, and how to understand the changes and implications.
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