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CKGSB Business Conditions Index for October 2018: Plunging Confidence

November 19, 2018 By CKGSB

In October, the CKGSB Business Conditions Index (BCI) dropped slightly from the worst reading to date in September, from 41.9 to 41.4. Although not quite as dramatic a decline as the previous month, the deterioration of conditions for doing business in China should not be underestimated. It shows that the majority of sampled companies, some of the most competitive private businesses in China, are pessimistic about their prospects for the next six months.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy Tagged With: BCI, Macroeconomics, SMEs

CKGSB Business Sentiment Index 2017 Q2: Economic Structural Problems Persist

October 16, 2017 By CKGSB Knowledge

Although China’s official GDP for the first two quarters and industrial growth exceeded expectations, the industrial economy has not yet bottomed out, according to the latest CKGSB study. Led by CKGSB Professor Gan Jie, the study shows that overcapacity remained at a historical high in the second quarter, and product and cost prices continued to rise, while production stayed flat. Meanwhile, the gap between the BSI of state-owned enterprises and that of private enterprises kept widening. The latest BSI findings show that the structural problems of China’s industrial economy remain a significant concern.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy Tagged With: BSI, Overcapacity, Structural Reform

CKGSB Business Sentiment Index 2017 Q1: Still Under Pressure

July 3, 2017 By CKGSB Knowledge

Although official data for first-quarter GDP and industrial growth exceeded expectations, the industrial economy has not yet bottomed out, according to the latest CKGSB survey. The survey, led by CKGSB Professor Gan Jie, shows that overcapacity remains at a historical high, both in terms of its prevalence and severity in Q1 2017. As in 2016 Q4, rising costs have been the driving force behind rising prices. Among firms with product costs inflation above 5%, cost rises were the most prominent. Meanwhile, the advantage of state-owned firms over private firms has increased in recent quarters.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, China, Chinese Economy, Economics

CKGSB February 2017 Business Conditions Index: Optimism Holds, Financing & Inventory are Major Concerns

March 8, 2017 By CKGSB Knowledge

Optimism for Chinese firms over the next six months still holds, but the corporate financing environment is getting difficult and the corporate inventory is increasing, according to the CKGSB Business Conditions Index, which registered 61.5 in February, a slight increase on January’s mark of 59.8. For CKGSBʼs sample of successful businesses operating in China, corporate sales index fell slightly from 82.7 to 80.5, while profits rose from 67.0 to 72.2, both are well above the confidence threshold of 50. Yet the other two sub-indices—corporate financing and in inventory—are below 50.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy Tagged With: Business Conditions Index

November 2016 China Business Conditions Index: Profitable, but Troubled

December 7, 2016 By CKGSB Knowledge

Optimism for Chinese firms is increasing. As they’re making money, they also face different issues. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index posted a mark of 60.8 in November, up from October’s 58.5. This shows that for the survey’s sample firms, of which the majority is relatively successful in China, the next six months are viewed with increased optimism. The CKGSB BCI comprises four sub-indices. Of these, corporate sales fell slightly from 75.4 to 74.0, while corporate profits rose from 57.4 to 61.8. The fact that both of these indices are both well above the confidence threshold of 50 shows that company prospects are improving.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, China, Chinese Economy, Economy Tagged With: BCI, Business Conditions Index

CKGSB Business Conditions Index for August 2016: Optimism prevails, but is on the wane

September 5, 2016 By CKGSB Knowledge

Business Conditions Index for China, July 2016

Everyone in the world is concerned about how the Chinese economy is faring and understandably so. China’s linkages with the world mean that the health of the Chinese economy has a bearing on other economies as well. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index, based on a survey conducted each month, gauges business sentiment about the macro-economic environment among successful Chinese business executives. BCI registered 54.5 in August, slightly less than July’s 56.3. Corporate sales and inventory levels rose slightly.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy, Know China Tagged With: BCI, Business Conditions

CKGSB Business Conditions Index: Reasons for Optimism

May 31, 2016 By CKGSB Knowledge

How do Chinese companies view the next few months? The CKGSB Business Conditions Index registered 59.3 in April, falling slightly on March’s overall index of 59.7. This shows that for the survey’s sample firms, of which the majority are relatively successful in China, the next few months are being viewed with some optimism. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index comprises four sub-indices for corporate sales, corporate profits, corporate financing and inventory levels. Corporate sales fell slightly from 74.5 to 73.1, while the profit index rose from 58.9 in March to 61.5 in April. With the sales forecast falling and the profit rising, this shows that cost expectations are improving.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy, Know China Tagged With: BCI, Business Conditions

CKGSB Business Conditions Index: Waning Optimism in China

March 2, 2016 By CKGSB Knowledge

Everyone in the world is concerned about how the Chinese economy is faring and understandably so. China’s linkages with the world mean that the health of the Chinese economy has a bearing on other economies as well. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index, based on a survey conducted each month, gauges business sentiment about the macro-economic environment among successful Chinese business executives. In January, the Index showed that for most relatively successful firms in China, optimism about business conditions over the next six months is waning, and executives are at best cautiously optimistic.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy Tagged With: BCI, Business Conditions

Business Conditions Index: Cautious Optimism for the Chinese Economy

November 24, 2015 By CKGSB Knowledge

According to the CKGSB Business Conditions Index (BCI), businesses in China remain confident, but it remains unclear if they will continue to. In October 2015, the BCI posted a figure of 54.0, a mild rise over September’s 51.1 and slightly above the confidence threshold of 50. The BCI hit a 14-month high of 61.3 in May 2015 before sliding steadily, with readings from July to September hovering above 50, indicating that the sample firms became less optimistic about business conditions with regard to the following six months. Despite a moderate rally, it is unclear whether the momentum will hold and so companies need to remain cautiously optimistic.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy, Know China Tagged With: BCI, Economy

Business Conditions Index Shows Cooling Optimism in China

August 7, 2015 By CKGSB Knowledge

The CKGSB Business Conditions Index shows that companies are expecting the Chinese economy to encounter some difficulties in the coming six months.

Filed Under: All Articles, BCI, Chinese Economy, Know China Tagged With: BCI, Chinese Economy, Financing, GDP Growth, Li Wei, Slider

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Information, analysis, and interviews about the Chinese economy and doing business in China, from the people who know it best. Presented by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, China's leading business school.


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